Nov 10, 2012

As For Me, Meles’ Ethiopia Reached Point Of No Return In 1996

Born in 1955 in the historic town of Adwa, Ethiopia (where the Ethiopians defeated the Italian invaders), Meles Zenawi was only 19 years old when he chose to trade his university life as an outstanding second year Medical Student at Addis Ababa University; to join the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) armed struggle in 1974. The war between the TPLF and its allies against the Derg lasted 17 years finally coming to an end with Meles and his Democratic Revolutionaries capturing power in 1991. Ever since, until his death in August 20, 2012. Growing up in Ethiopia, as a child, I would go to a café with my brother, where we would pay 25 cent of the local Ethiopian currency (Birr) for a tea and sit for about an hour to watch the news. On the way back to our residence with conviction from the core of his belief, my brother would immerse himself with thoughts in a distance future and would preach to me how, if I studied hard and commit myself to excellence, I too could someday grow to be Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prime Minister or any of the leadership positions that we would watch from the small Television screen that hang above the cashier. Paying 25 cent in order to remain inside and be able to watch the news from the one and only state owned channel ETV was something of a luxury for me. I can’t say if my brother’s advice ever soaked in or not, but a story in one of those evening news caught my attention and grew in me. In 1996 as a young child I learned something that I feel had impact on how I saw government and to some extent shaped my view on Ethiopia, public service, governance and the rule of law in general.

In 1996 we watched on the news seating Deputy Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Mr. Tamrat Layne who held the Prime Minister position previously being charged for multiple corruptions using his power for private gain including a multi million-export scheme. Seating Prime Minister of Ethiopia himself Mr. Meles Zenawi was testifying against the man who he picked as his Deputy Prime Minister Mr. Layne. As a child, to me this was more than I can comprehend, I never expected or knew that government officials at that level get charged; let a lone imprisoned just like any of the regular citizens. I cannot speak for others, but as far as my earliest childhood memories that I can remember, there were always respect and fear of authority. I for one, certainly never felt that regular citizens were protected and equally treated as people with power and authority; perhaps that experience had to do having spent a good portion of my early childhood where soldiers and people with guns were omnipresent. I remember one occurrence when two soldiers came to our house and I run and hid under the bed as far to the corner as I could. I still am not sure why I was scared of soldiers, as for those specific soldiers they must been family friends just visiting because my family were laughing at me for running and hiding under the bed.

During his testimony PM Meles was asked, why he picked Mr. Layne to be his deputy? Did he not know the man well? Meles responded saying something along the lines of, Tamrat was a comrade for many years, a man who went through so much struggle and fire. When fire couldn’t break him, I didn’t envision for comfort to be the one to break him. Since that day I have grown to believe more and more from the depth of my heart, everyman is equal and the true power belongs to the people and that in the court of law everyman was equal and responsible for his deeds. Because of Meles’ action on that day, I had the sense that, this man was honest and committed to do the right thing. He also indirectly instilled in me that what my brother preached to me was quite accurate, from there on I realized that Ethiopia had reached a point of no return, where picking up arms to fight for one’s views was no longer the preferred means of bringing change; it is a thing of the past. Ideas, pens and papers were the new tools of change in the new Ethiopia. Make no mistake I am not oblivious of to all the challenges and the path an infant democracy must go through.

When the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) (one coalition body of Ethiopia’s ruling party the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) leadership, then chaired by the late premier split into two factions in 2001, it did not surprise me to see some of those members join the opposition parties. It just confirmed with my belief that, for Ethiopians, when you don’t agree with the policy or have some other sociopolitical differences, Ethiopians has accepted and choose the democratic process and its slow bureaucratic maneuvers to bring about change when they see it fit. And this shift in thinking I believe is because of EPRDF's policies, with Meles’ at its helm, that created an atmosphere of a political playing field where parties could compute for their ideas. Was/is the playing field equally fair to all? Depending on which party one supports it is arguable. Let alone in Ethiopia where the democratic process is in its infancy, it is a naked truth even in some of the oldest democratic and considered by many as transparent democracies, political parties play tag of war in making the rules and regulations in favor of the ruling party every time they get the chance.  What is not arguable is under Meles' leadership Ethiopia laid its constitution and a system of law was embraced.

A system is what matters the most. Having established a system, as the law of Synergy and Aristotle would state, “a system is more than the sum of its component parts”.  As long as there is a reference point, the details can be amended and molded in due time. People can hold others accountable, modify rules and regulations, craft policies and convince others on how they believe is better way forward. From that aspect is where I can say, in my lifetime, aside from all those I read in history books, all the leaders I have followed thus far, I have not come across a leader whose contributions to his country and to the less fortunate citizens of the world has had more influenced than Meles. Meles defended the interest of Africa and refused to succumb to the Washington consensus one size fits all neoliberal policy when pressured. Meles didn’t just defend the poor’s interest; he proved it with results domestically, continentally and on the world stage. Meles’ policies are paving the way for Ethiopia to tackle and get out of its painful chronic poverty one visible step at a time.

I by no means would not imply everything was perfect under the leadership of Prime Minister Meles, for I believe that all humans have both strength and weakness characteristics. I can write about Meles’ accomplishments and short comings on economic development, democracy, human rights, cultivating generations of young leaders and so on. But, I am fully aware not everyone will have similar view on the late Premier’s legacy, as I do. Most of those subjects would be based on individualistic opinions & point of views. It sure is hard to provide tangible and factual information to back up one’s arguments, therefore, I like to focus on subjects that we have accurate information that cannot be manipulated by conformists or ignored by dissents. Factual information that may help us suppress our own personal feelings and attempt our very best to think logically and formulate our judgment based on internationally credible sources and their numerical reports.

The Economic Facts & Figures

Meles who held Master of Business Administration and Masters of Science in Economics is a respected world-class intellect. His capacity, the clarity of his message and his vision for an African Development can be seen in his PhD thesis paper, AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT: DEAD ENDS AND NEW BEGINNINGS. In his thesis, Meles explains the need for a paradigm shift from the western favored neo-liberal theory of economic policies to a democratic developmental state, where he argues the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Western backed neoliberal economic prescriptions are not fit for African countries. Meles favored government intervention in the economy as long as the intervening actors are not in it to maximize their own wealth at the expense of the public. Meles walked the talk and proved it with international standards of measurement by leading and guiding the Ethiopian Economy to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

In order to keep things in perspective, let us look at the status of Ethiopia, under Meles and his EPRDF party. The following economic growth chart Eritrea, Kenya and the US has been highlighted not necessarily as a comparison but rather as a point of reference. It is worth noting that Eritrea was a state under Ethiopia prior to 1991 and was a war zone just like Ethiopia. Hence iin 1991 both were in a similar economic status. Kenya on the other hand, aside from some hiccups is considered as a stable and progressively developing African country both democratically and economically. The USA is one of the developed countries and has over 230 years of experience in the democratic process.

GDP Growth (annual %) Year 1992 - 20011 based on available data. Source the 
World  Bank.


Ranking of the 217
Country Name
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
GD̄P Ave Growth
7
Macao/Macau
13.30
5.20
4.30
3.30
-0.40
-0.30
-4.60
-2.40
5.70
2.90
8.90
12.58
4.04
12
Bhutan
2.08
3.19
3.51
6.04
6.19
5.40
5.57
6.87
7.52
6.99
8.92
8.58
5.90
15th
Ethiopia
-8.67
13.14
3.19
6.13
12.43
3.13
-3.46
5.16
6.07
8.30
1.51
-2.16
3.73
87th
Eritrea

13.45
21.22
2.86
9.26
7.91
1.77
0.01
-13.12
21.25
3.01
-2.66
5.41
113th
Kenya
-0.80
0.35
2.63
4.41
4.15
0.47
3.29
2.31
0.60
3.78
0.55
2.93
2.06
139th
United States
3.40
2.87
4.11
2.55
3.79
4.51
4.40
4.87
4.17
1.09
1.83
2.55
3.35
128th
World
2.10
1.77
3.29
2.87
3.36
3.81
2.32
3.29
4.19
1.69
1.99
2.73
2.78

Ranking of the 217
Country Name
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
GD̄P Ave Growth
7
Macao/Macau
26.88
8.54
14.43
14.38
3.33
1.72
27.04
20.74
14.63
12
Bhutan
7.97
8.77
6.85
17.93
4.67
6.73
7.44
8.41
8.60
15th
Ethiopia
13.57
11.82
10.83
11.46
10.79
8.80
9.94
7.30
10.56
87th
Eritrea
1.46
2.57
-0.96
1.43
-9.79
3.88
2.20
8.72
1.19
113th
Kenya
5.10
5.91
6.33
6.99
1.53
2.64
5.55
4.50
4.82
139th
United States
3.48
3.08
2.66
1.91
-0.36
-3.53
3.02
1.70
1.49
128th
World
3.99
3.46
4.00
3.94
1.33
-2.25
4.34
2.73
2.69

Since 2002 Macao, Afghanistan, Bhutan and Ethiopia in that respect, are the top 4 non Oil producing...with the highest GDP Growth rate, Ethiopia's averaged 10.55% 

The data is compiled from the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) websites, two of the most reliable international organizations. Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) or GDP Growth is the measure of a country’s economic growth (it takes inflation into account), albeit some economist don’t feel it a satisfactory means to measure an economy. Perhaps; but as Winston Churchill would say, “…democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms…” in the same token until economists agree on a better measurement to measure economic growth, the measurement and reports that followed this measurement should not be taunted as a joke where politicians accept or quote the report whenever it pleases them, but discredit it whenever it looks a positive result for their opponents. Mr. Tmesegen Zewdie, member of 
Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) leadership, who was ridiculing the report and framing it as if it was manipulated lies by EPRDF, is a prime example here. Political party leaders, especially in developing countries such as Ethiopia where millions do not have the privilege, luxury or the ability to cross-reference the information, political leaders should accept it as moral duty to not purposely mislead their followers.

So how do the economic numbers fair up for Ethiopia anyway? Ethiopia’s economic growth from 1992 - 2011 averaged 6.8% per year, and that places Ethiopia the 15th fastest growing Economy from a list of 217 countries since 1992. Eritrea takes 87th, Kenya 113th and the US 139th. When looking into those other 14 countries whose average growth for the last 20 years is greater than Ethiopia’s, only three of them were non oil producers, and one of the three (Afghanistan’s) data is only available since 2002. Which means among non-oil producing countries, only Macao and Bhutan grew faster than Ethiopia in the last 20 years during the time period that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his party governed Ethiopia. Why should it matter if a country is oil producing or not? It should matter, because if a country does not have noticeable natural resources but continues to show a fast economic growth, the result should be attributed to the countries economic policies and strategies drafted and implemented by its visionary leader(s), their advisors and the commitment of the ruling party (following the fall of the Derg the first year under EPRDF notice Ethiopia's economic growth was negative 8.67 in 
1992).  

What is even more impressive is that, Ethiopia’s economy has shown double digit economic growth consistently since 2004. The average Economic growth from 2004 – 2011 is recorded at 10.55% and that puts Ethiopia, the third fastest growing economy in the world right behind China and India. Some people have genuinely asked me, if it is true that the country is growing at such rate how come there are still so many economic problems such as the price of commodities being so high? The shorter answer is, the measurement is for the whole country so although the economy might have greatly improve on average that does not guarantee each town or city to show a noticeable change. In terms of Ethiopia considering that above 80% of the population live in the rural area, and if the economic progress is mainly driven from the rural, it is possible for the urban population not to feel the fruits of the economic growth as much.

The take away point here is, asking whether or not our respective families, village, town or city are they better off than they used to be? Have they been positively impacted by the country’s economic growth? The answers to those questions do not necessarily justify proving or disproving the country’s economic growth. Because there is an economic growth does not mean everyone will directly see the change. What is true is, every citizen will be either directly or indirectly better off as long as the economy is growing. Perhaps there is a road being built and that might mean nothing to an individual who does not have a car but it will mean something if that person eventually owns a car or if that individual is able to get to the market faster because of the road. Otherwise it would be like as asking, since the USA is high income developed country how come millions still live under poverty? A country’s economic measures take into account the averages, it does not account for each citizen.  Also is not unusual to hear people say before EPRDF there was no shortage of sugar or electricity or what have you. Let us not forget to consider that, it is not that the production of Sugar and Electricity is less than what was available then, it is rather because there is a higher standard of living and improved infrastructure there are more consumers of those products than they used to be.

Today, the percent of the Ethiopian population living under poverty has fallen to 29.2% from 45% when Meles and his party took power in 1991. Just so you keep some relevance in mind 50% of both Eritrean and Kenyan are living under poverty in comparison; and 15.1% of Americans live under poverty. Ethiopia’s child mortality rate had dramatically decreased by up to 40 percent & life expectancy has increased from 48 years in 1992 to 59 years in 2011. The school enrolment has reached 102% in 2010 compared to 26% in 1992. Many leaders including European Commission President José Manuel Barroso have credited Meles on making a viable stride for Ethiopia to achieve the United Nations MillenniumDevelopment Goals by 2015. African leaders continuously picked Prime Minister Meles to represent Africa on the world stage and defend its interests. In the words of New York Times writer Jeffrey Gettleman's words, Prime Minister Meles “played an outsize role in the region, and in the continent”. Beyond those factual data, the Prime Minister’s contribution in brokering a peace agreement between the two Sudans and other African countries were monumental.

The renowned professor Dr. Ephraim Isaac’s interview about Prime Minister Meles, gave people an insightful glimpse to how Meles was fully committed for Ethiopia’s peace and development, and interest in working with anyone who was committed to the same cause and purpose. Professor Isaac’s decades long recount says a lot about Meles’ character, humility and ability to see the big picture in the interest of Ethiopians. Even as Meles and his Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) were with in months from toppling the Derg regime, Meles never closed the door on peace and preferred ending the war through negotiation, but as Meles likes to recite the saying, “it takes two to tango”.

Looking forward, what is expected of Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn?
First congratulations to Ethiopia, Ethiopians and all friends of Ethiopia on witnessing the very first peaceful transition of power to a new leader for the first time in its modern history. I hope that, PM Hailemariam continues to prioritize development and democracy.  Ethiopia and its leaders must remain committed to work for the majority of the citizens, as that is the definition of democracy. Neither do I expect nor do I believe Prime Minister Hailemariam should try to fill in anyone’s shoes. He has the people’s confidence that he will lead the country in his style and pave his own path the best way he knows. May you find the purpose to continue and the love to endure. Leaders must not succumb to outside pressure if it does not serve the majority of Ethiopians. Democracy is indeed not free and must be guarded. Free Press is one of the pillars of democracy but it must not be bestowed on self-claimed journalists who do not adhere to journalistic ethics. Individuals who blur one’s opinions and deliver them as facts. The deliberate lies & distortion of facts must stop. We all have the right to our opinions but not the right to purposely mislead others. Most Ethiopians do not have the luxury and the resources, to cross reference news information. Therefore individuals who knowingly mislead such vulnerable citizens should be condemned and hold accountable for their actions by all. The public more than any other entity must be vigilant and protect its own rights from those who propagate ill-conceived motives.

The time has come when the truth must not be suppressed, the silent majority should no longer remain on the side of the fence, because our personal rights & liberty are not violated yet; an infringement or violation on fellows rights should be seen infringement and threat to our own rights. We should stand for the free expression of others as long as it does not mix facts and opinions. Opinions/views should be delivered as opinions and facts should be delivered as such. Whether the publics like it or not, that should be a choice to be left for the public.

What is our part then?

It is fine to try to communicate to others from ones point of view, but that is no match for facts and figures, that is why when speaking to fellow brethren who’s view of PM Meles Zenawi that different of those that I hold, I try to stick to facts and figures to make my case. Because PM Meles’ accomplishments and legacy speaks in a manner that I or anyone else could ever eloquently communicate. For any open minded individual who cares about the status of Ethiopia and the livelihood of Ethiopians, the late premier's legacy is as clear as the morning sun. Meles I believe was Marxist at heart, who believed in equal opportunity for all. He dedicated his whole life not only for the betterment of his fellow country man, but for the betterment of those less fortunate. Great are those who stand for dignity and for the betterment of others. 


Perhaps this quote from a poem can communicate the message and the life of PM Meles -
“In the event of my demise when my heart can beat no more

I hope I die for a principle or a belief that I had lived for
…
I loved all who were positive in the event of my Demise”.

For further reading please check out the following links from where I have cited some of this information.

Cheers,
Daniel

http://search.worldbank.org/data?qterm=ethiopias+growth+statistics

http://search.worldbank.org/all?qterm=gdp+growth

http://data.worldbank.org/country/ethiopia

http://www.economist.com/node/21560904?fb_ref=activity

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/daily_chart?fb_ref=scn%2Ffb_ec%2Fafricas_impressive_growth&fb_source=home_multiline

http://allafrica.com/stories/201209051123.html

 http://www.africanidea.org/reflections_mz.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ethiopian-prime-minister-meles-zenawi-countrys-longtime-ruler-dies-at-age-57/2012/08/21/f822f0e8-eb87-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_gallery.html#photo=12

http://www.ethiopianreporter.com/interview/297-interview/7546-2012-08-25-09-13-00.html

http://www.thereporterethiopia.com/Business-Opinion/monetary-mystification.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/world/africa/meles-zenawi-ethiopian-leader-dies-at-57.html?_r=2&hp&

http://www.one.org/us/mdg/

http://www.aigaforum.com/articles/Meles-Zenawi-and-Democray.pdf